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Rising Global Burden of BCY: Historical Data & Future Forecasts

July, 07, 2024 | Breast Cancer

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The study aimed to investigate the global and regional trends, burden, and disparities of BCY.
  • Researchers noticed significant regional disparities, with a rising BCY burden in low and low-middle SDI countries.

Breast cancer (BC) in young women (BCY) is much less common but has significant health sequelae and societal costs. The study analyzed trends in BCY incidence, mortality, and attributable risk factors across different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions and countries.

Mengqi Yuan and the team aimed to evaluate the global and regional burden of BC in women aged 15-39 years from 1990 to 2019.

Researchers performed an inclusive analysis using detailed data on BC from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Data Resources. Patients’ age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were utilized to assess the disease burden of BCY. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was applied to forecast the disease burden from 2020 to 2030.

About 1990 to 2019, significant increases in ASIR were found for BCY (EAPC = 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5 to 0.68), whereas decreases in ASMR (EAPC = -0.41, 95% CI = -0.53 to -0.3) and ASDR (EAPC = -0.35, 95% CI = -0.46 to -0.24). Across countries with varying SDI, all regions showed an upward trend in BCY morbidity, except for countries with a high SDI.

While mortality and DALYs rates have decreased in countries with high, high-middle, and middle SDI, they have increased in countries with low-middle and low SDI. Countries with lower SDIs are projected to bear the greatest burden of BCY over the next decade, including both low and low-middle categories. Alcohol use was the main risk factor attributed to BCY deaths in most countries, while exposure to second-hand smoke was the predominant risk factor for BCY deaths in middle and low-middle SDI countries.

The study concluded that the burden of BCY is on the rise worldwide, with significant regional differences. Countries with a low-middle or low SDI face even more challenges, experiencing a more significant and increasing BCY burden than countries with higher SDIs.

This study was funded by the Nanfang Hospital President Fund and the National Social Science Fund of China.

Source: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39026460/

Yuan M, Zhu Y, Ren Y, et al. (2024). “Global burden and attributable risk factors of breast cancer in young women: historical trends from 1990 to 2019 and forecasts to 2030 by sociodemographic index regions and countries.” J Glob Health. 2024 Jul 19;14:04142. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04142. PMID: 39026460; PMCID: PMC11258534.

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