Background:
Second primary malignancies (SPMs) after liver transplantation (LT) are becoming the leading causes of death in LT recipients. The purpose of this study was to explore prognostic factors for SPMs and to establish an overall survival nomogram.
Methods:
A retrospective analysis was conducted of data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database on adult patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone LT between 2004 and 2015. Cox regression analysis was used to explore the independent prognostic factors for SPMs. Nomogram was constructed using R software to predict the overall survival at 2, 3, and 5 years. The concordance index, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the clinical prediction model.
Results:
Data from a total of 2078 patients were eligible, of whom 221 (10.64%) developed SPMs. A total of 221 patients were split into a training cohort (n=154) or a validation cohort (n=67) with a 7:3 ratio. The 3 most common SPMs were lung cancer, prostate cancer, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Age at initial diagnosis, marital status, year of diagnosis, T stage, and latency were the prognostic factors for SPMs. The C-index of the nomogram for overall survival in the training and validation cohorts were 0.713 and 0.729, respectively.
Conclusions:
We analyzed the clinical characteristics of SPMs and developed a precise prediction nomogram, with a good predictive performance. The nomogram we developed may help clinicians provide personalized decisions and clinical treatment for LT recipients.